Official Money
My New Year wishes
A revised version of the article I posted two days ago
The world economic recovery remains fragile and could easily be derailed by renewed financial turmoil. My first wish is a terminological one – please, can we find a more useful word or phrase to describe what has happened? The word “crisis” and the phrases “financial crisis” , “great financial crisis”, “Global Financial Crisis” ,…
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Why Asia fears new currency war
The world is preparing to mark the centenary of the outbreak of World War I by starting another
The territory will be different – the sides will measure their gains and losses in terms of fractions of an exchange rate movement rather than yards of muddy land in Flanders. But the implications could be far-reaching. Nothing less than the future shape and health of the world economy is at stake. The…
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Please, don’t fall in love with NGDPLT
It will doom us to yet another boom-bust cycle of despair.
The Fed, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are said to be moving to adopt an acronym as the next love of their life – NGDPLT. The notion that monetary policy should aim to ensure steady growth in domestic output, measured in current prices, was first put forward during the…
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Good riddance to inflation targets
But the next monetary policy will be even worse
As predicted in The Money Trap, governments and central banks are preparing to ditch the inflation target regime of monetary policy. Hilariously if predictably, they are insisting that it has succeeded – but that it is time to move on. So long as they bury their heads in the sand like this, no…
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The New Bank of England
When Mark Carney talks of relaunching the Old Lady, this is no mere figure of speech.
A well-informed correspondent, who did not want to be identified, predicts a full “spring clean”: “ I’m inclined to think Carney’s denial of interest (in becoming Governor) was genuine rather than a negotiation tactic like Napoleon’s thrice refusal of the title of emperor. However the denial of interest may have been based on…
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Understanding markets and power leads to one conclusion Those who are familiar with his thinking report that he will be keen to emphasise that responsibility for managing risks lies with the firms themselves. So he will be big on reforming governance of financial institutions. He will insist that bank boards live up to their duty…
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The UK media have been gushing in their welcome. It is right to welcome central banking’s “rock star”. But not everybody has been carried away by the euphoria…you only have to scan the Canadian press today: Andrew Coyne at the Montreal Gazette That our banking system was not so badly mauled by the crisis as…
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It’s the system, stupid!
Is anybody listening?
One very senior former policy-maker has written to express his broad agreement with the analysis in The Money Trap. He cites three sentences on page 33, which sum up my review of the performance of the world economy since the collapse of Bretton Woods in the early 1970s: “The severity of the financial crisis…
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Eurozone to lead world out of the money trap?
The eurozone as a policy laboratory
There is a long, long way to go. But confidence is gradually returning to the eurozone – confidence that at least a break-up of the eurozone will be avoided (thought his does not exclude the possibility that Greece may leave). The fall in spreads on Spanish and Italian bonds over German bunds is one…
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The Sun King and The Money Trap
The governor made mistakes but has also pressed for necessary reforms.
The knives are out for Sir Mervyn (“The Sun” ) King. Commentators who once stood in awe now rush to condemn him.This is not a pretty sight. It is also unfair to someone who, while not being the right man to manage the UK’s biggest financial crisis ever, has made important contributions to re-thinking…
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