RP’s Diary
My New Year wishes
A revised version of the article I posted two days ago
The world economic recovery remains fragile and could easily be derailed by renewed financial turmoil. My first wish is a terminological one – please, can we find a more useful word or phrase to describe what has happened? The word “crisis” and the phrases “financial crisis” , “great financial crisis”, “Global Financial Crisis” ,…
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Why Asia fears new currency war
The world is preparing to mark the centenary of the outbreak of World War I by starting another
The territory will be different – the sides will measure their gains and losses in terms of fractions of an exchange rate movement rather than yards of muddy land in Flanders. But the implications could be far-reaching. Nothing less than the future shape and health of the world economy is at stake. The…
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Please, don’t fall in love with NGDPLT
It will doom us to yet another boom-bust cycle of despair.
The Fed, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are said to be moving to adopt an acronym as the next love of their life – NGDPLT. The notion that monetary policy should aim to ensure steady growth in domestic output, measured in current prices, was first put forward during the…
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Good riddance to inflation targets
But the next monetary policy will be even worse
As predicted in The Money Trap, governments and central banks are preparing to ditch the inflation target regime of monetary policy. Hilariously if predictably, they are insisting that it has succeeded – but that it is time to move on. So long as they bury their heads in the sand like this, no…
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What Osborne should have said
George Osborne has missed a chance to lead us out of The Money Trap.
George Osborne, Chancellor of the Exchequer, made an autumn statement in the House of Commons yesterday. This is what he should have said. Mr Speaker, Honourable Members, Successive governments have allowed the problems related to and in part caused by the operations of banks in this country to drag on. No solution is in…
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The New Bank of England
When Mark Carney talks of relaunching the Old Lady, this is no mere figure of speech.
A well-informed correspondent, who did not want to be identified, predicts a full “spring clean”: “ I’m inclined to think Carney’s denial of interest (in becoming Governor) was genuine rather than a negotiation tactic like Napoleon’s thrice refusal of the title of emperor. However the denial of interest may have been based on…
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Understanding markets and power leads to one conclusion Those who are familiar with his thinking report that he will be keen to emphasise that responsibility for managing risks lies with the firms themselves. So he will be big on reforming governance of financial institutions. He will insist that bank boards live up to their duty…
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The UK media have been gushing in their welcome. It is right to welcome central banking’s “rock star”. But not everybody has been carried away by the euphoria…you only have to scan the Canadian press today: Andrew Coyne at the Montreal Gazette That our banking system was not so badly mauled by the crisis as…
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What’s the G30 doing?
Carney’s appointment is another scalp for my old firm, the G30.
It follows the appointment of G30 member Mario Draghi to be president of the European Central Bank (which raised eyebrows in some circles, see here) . Last year also member Mervyn King became chair of the Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision (GHOS), the Global Economy Meeting (GEM) and the Economic Consultative Committee…
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Mark Carney has much going for him. He combines in-depth experience of modern financial markets with first class economics credentials (Harvard and Oxford) and unrivalled inside knowledge of international bank regulation. If he does as well as his former Goldman Sachs colleague Mario Draghi has done in his first year at the ECB,…
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